Lottery Odds Explained:
The lottery is nation-wide, not squad-based. Meaning you are not competing solely against your squad mates - but every pilot in your nation. Because of this, parts are not guaranteed to be won - even when only a single person in your squad enters for a certain item.
It appears that each weapon has a preset, limited quantity that is made available for the lotto each day. This means the odds of winning depend on two factors: 1) the number of entries you place for a specific item, and 2) that item's popularity. (i.e. total # of entries from all other people trying to win it.)
The experimental and captured parts lottos are completely separate from each other, but work the same way. The only difference is that items listed in captured parts will be from the two opposing nations, and will change daily. The odds of winning either lotto shift each day, depending on the total number of entries for each part.
Items that appear on screen as "Recommended" are harder to win because more people will enter for them. Recommended part displays are like advertising. They create a high demand so “everyone wants it”, yet supplies for that part are limited. (Ex. during a single lotto, I placed 16 entries for Poleyn Armor, yet did not win at all.)
On the flipside, less popular items can be won very often, making it appear as if you win all the time. (Ex. during a single lotto, I placed 4 entries for a Sharman chassis, and won all 4 of them.)
If there’s one part you truly want, the more entries you place for it, the better your odds of winning it. But if it’s “recommended” or has a special quality (rapid reload, high firepower, light weight, etc.), more people will enter for it, reducing your odds of winning.
Lotto Myths:
If you place multiple entries for an item and win, you will win multiple items. Unfortunately, this is untrue. If you place multiple entries for a single item, you are NOT guaranteed to win an equivalent quantity of them. (Ex. If you enter 3 lotto tickets for a Pallasch Cannon, you may only win 1.) Odds of winning multiple items improve when the item is less popular.
Another misconception is that if you win an item, you can enter for the same part the next day and automatically win it. This is not true either. It all depends on the daily supply and demand for that part.
Why Donate Money?
Donating money improves your country’s research fund. As greater fund levels are reached, new parts are researched and made available. But there’s another great benefit besides new parts.
When new parts are researched, they replace a number of items previously in the Experimental lotto. The replaced parts are then moved into the Buy section. So if you’ve been trying to win that awesome system device for weeks, now you might be able to just buy it!